{"id":1033,"date":"2018-02-22T06:42:56","date_gmt":"2018-02-22T11:42:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/noti-america.com\/site\/us-tx\/?p=1033"},"modified":"2018-02-22T06:42:56","modified_gmt":"2018-02-22T11:42:56","slug":"salida-unilateral-de-eeuu-del-tlcan-afectaria-perfil-crediticio-de-mexico-moodys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noti-america.com\/site\/texas\/2018\/02\/22\/salida-unilateral-de-eeuu-del-tlcan-afectaria-perfil-crediticio-de-mexico-moodys\/","title":{"rendered":"Salida unilateral de EEUU del TLCAN afectar\u00eda perfil crediticio de M\u00e9xico: Moody’s"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Chrystia Freeland, ministra de Relaciones Exteriores de Canad\u00e1, durante una conferencia de prensa junto al secretario de Econom\u00eda, Ildefonso Guajardo (izquierda), y Robert Lighthizer, representante comercial de Estados Unidos, en Montreal, Canad\u00e1. 29 de enero de 2018. REUTERS\/Christinne Muschi (Imagen de archivo)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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CIUDAD DE M\u00c9XICO (Reuters) – La agencia calificadora Moody’s Investor Service dijo el lunes que la incertidumbre en torno al futuro del Tratado de Libre Comercio de Am\u00e9rica del Norte (TLCAN) contin\u00faa nublando la perspectiva para M\u00e9xico, pa\u00eds que ver\u00eda afectado su perfil crediticio si Estados Unidos se retira unilateralmente.<\/p>\n

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Fuente:\u00a0https:\/\/www.swissinfo.ch<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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El domingo comienza en M\u00e9xico la s\u00e9ptima ronda de negociaciones para modernizar el acuerdo vigente desde 1994 con Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1, con pocos avances en temas como el de reglas de origen del sector automotor, donde el Gobierno del presidente Donald Trump ha hecho fuertes demandas a sus contrapartes.<\/p>\n

El escenario base de la agencia sigue siendo que se lograr\u00e1 un tratado modificado a finales de marzo, pero tambi\u00e9n considera otros tres resultados alternativos en caso de que las conversaciones se prolonguen despu\u00e9s del primer trimestre, con la salida unilateral de Estados Unidos como el m\u00e1s riesgoso.<\/p>\n

Mientras que en el primer caso una renegociaci\u00f3n exitosa le dar\u00eda a M\u00e9xico soporte para una ligera aceleraci\u00f3n del crecimiento en 2018 y 2019 a entre 2.0 y 2.5 por ciento, los otros tres escenarios posibles podr\u00edan afectar las variables financieras en el corto plazo hasta generar, incluso, recesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Bajo el primer escenario alternativo, las negociaciones se prolongar\u00e1n m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del 1 de abril, pero seguir\u00e1n los avances, por lo que los tres socios eventualmente llegar\u00e1n a acuerdos para actualizar el tratado, posiblemente a mediados de 2019, lo que baja la incertidumbre y da soporte a la inversi\u00f3n y el crecimiento de mediano plazo.<\/p>\n

En un escenario en el que se termina el tratado, pero sigue la relaci\u00f3n comercial con Estados Unidos mediante la transici\u00f3n a un acuerdo bilateral bajo las reglas de la Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial del Comercio (OMC), Moody’s prev\u00e9 efectos m\u00e1s graves sobre las variables financieras del corto plazo, m\u00e1s que en los fundamentos de largo plazo.<\/p>\n

Finalmente, pudiera presentarse una transici\u00f3n \u00abestresada\u00bb en la que Estados Unidos se retirara del TLCAN e impusiera restricciones comerciales a M\u00e9xico, lo que provocar\u00eda una recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica para la segunda mayor econom\u00eda de Am\u00e9rica Latina, seg\u00fan la agencia calificadora.<\/p>\n

Este escenario considera los efectos de la terminaci\u00f3n del TLCAN y la imposici\u00f3n de aranceles por parte de Estados Unidos, que en diversos casos pudieran rebasar los permitidos por las reglas OMC, aunado a la introducci\u00f3n de diversas barreras comerciales no arancelarias, seg\u00fan la Moody’s.<\/p>\n

\u00abLa magnitud y duraci\u00f3n del choque ser\u00edan considerablemente mayores (…) El choque resultante de este escenario ser\u00eda menos severo pero m\u00e1s prolongado que el observado en 2009\u00bb, advirti\u00f3 Moody’s Investor Service, que a la fecha mantiene una calificaci\u00f3n para M\u00e9xico de \u00abA3\u00bb con perspectiva negativa.<\/p>\n

(Reporte de Sharay Angulo, Editado por Manuel Far\u00edas)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chrystia Freeland, ministra de Relaciones Exteriores de Canad\u00e1, durante una conferencia de prensa junto al secretario de Econom\u00eda, Ildefonso Guajardo (izquierda), y Robert Lighthizer, representante comercial de Estados Unidos, en Montreal, Canad\u00e1. 29 de...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":1034,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"twitter_242054905_242054905":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSalida unilateral de EEUU del TLCAN afectar\u00eda perfil crediticio de M\u00e9xico: Moody's - Texas | 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